Welcome to the first of a three-part series where we give you a look at all minor NCAA Division 1 conference tournaments.
Conference tournament season is finally upon us, and around 300 teams beginning in late February will battle it out for spots in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. This battle is even steeper for teams in 21 “low-major” conferences, as the tournament champ will almost certainly be that conference’s only representative in March Madness. The talent is still prevalent on these low-major teams however, and we’ve seen squads like 2018 UMBC, 2012 Norfolk St, and 2013 Florida Gulf Coast knock off some of the nation’s best. We’re getting closer and closer to March Madness a.k.a. the best days of the year, and this post should be your one-stop shop when it comes to our first batch of low-major conference tourneys.
*By The Numbers + Sleeper Team made with help from heatcheckcbb.com’s conference tourney previews.
Horizon
February 25-March 9
Campus Sites (1st Round, Quarterfinals); Indianapolis, IN (Semifinals, Finals)
Last 3 Winners
Wright St (2018), Northern Kentucky (2019), Northern Kentucky (2020)
3 Stars
Loudon Love (Wright St)- 6’8/260 SR, 16.7 PPG/10.3 RPG/1.3 BPG
Antoine Davis (Detroit)- 6’1/165 JR, 23.3 PPG (3rd in NCAA)
Naz Bohannon (Youngstown St)- 6’6/228 SR, 16.7 PPG
By The Numbers
275-Cleveland State never finished above this spot in KenPom over the last three years. This year however, Dennis Gates has completely turned them around and they now hold the 1 seed in the Horizon Tournament.
Sleeper Team
#5 Detroit- Antoine Davis is one of the best scorers in the country, so of course this makes Detroit a threat. What gives them an even better chance this year, however, is the fact that Davis has some help, with two other players averaging over 10 points per game.
My Prediction
3 Oakland over 4 Northern Kentucky
America East
February 27-March 13
Campus Sites
Last 3 Winners
Vermont (2017), UMBC (2018), Vermont (2019)
3 Stars
Obadiah Noel (UMass Lowell)- 6’4/190 SR, 19.8 PPG (1st in America East)
RJ Eytle-Rock (UMBC)- 6’3/225 JR, 14.1 PPG
Brandon Horvath (UMBC)- 6’10/210 SR, 13.3 PPG/8.7 RPG (1st in America East)
By the Numbers
28 + 29– America East’s yearly rankings in offensive efficiency over the past four years. Defense rules in this conference, and you’ll see that when tuning in to these tourney matchups.
Sleeper Team
#6 UMass Lowell- They have the conference’s leading scorer in Obadiah Noel, and while he is questionable with an injury, the River Hawks could go on a run if he ends up playing in the tournament.
My Prediction
2 Vermont over 1 UMBC
Big South
February 27-March 7
Campus Sites
Last 3 Winners
Winthrop (2017), Radford (2018), Gardner-Webb (2019)
3 Stars
Chandler Vaudrin (Winthrop)- 6’7/210 SR, 12.3 PPG/6.8 RPG (3rd in Big South)/6.7 APG (7th in NCAA)
John-Michael Wright (High Point)- 6’1/185 SO, 20.8 PPG (2nd in Big South)/.422 FG% (5th in Big South)
Cedric Henderson Jr. (Campbell)- 6’6/190 JR, 16 PPG/.513 FG% (1st in Big South)
By the Numbers
15– Winthrop and Radford, the tournament’s top 2 seeds, are both in the top 15 nationally in rebounding efficiency margin. Despite being slightly undersized, these teams can still rack up boards, which could be crucial down the stretch of any close games.
Sleeper Team
#4 UNC Asheville- This team has improved every year since Mike Morell took over in 2018-19. At 10-9 currently, they’re led by 16 PPG scorer Tajion Jones. Additionally, and the main reason they’re the sleeper, they’ve handed Winthrop their only loss this season.
My Prediction
2 Radford over 5 Longwood
Atlantic Sun
March 4-March 7
Jacksonville
Last 3 Winners
Florida Gulf Coast (2017), Lipscomb (2018), Liberty (2019)
3 Stars
Pedro Bradshaw (Bellarmine)- 6’7/180 JR, 15.6 PPG (3rd in Atlantic Sun)/7.2 RPG (4th in Atlantic Sun)/1.7 SPG (4th in Atlantic Sun)
Dontarius James (Jacksonville)- 6’8/228 JR, 17.5 PPG (1st in Atlantic Sun)/0.8 BPG (4th in Atlantic Sun)
Rob Perry (Stetson)- 6’4/210 SO, 14.9 PPG
By the Numbers
15– Liberty ranks in the Top 15 nationally in both 3-point shooting and 3-point attempt rate, as they shoot nearly half of their attempts from three. This team runs their offense like they’re in the league, and they have the talent to do so as well, with four players playing over 10 MPG shooting over 40% from deep. If the Flames live up to their name and stay hot, every team in the country should be on alert.
Sleeper Team
#7 Stetson- Despite being a 7 seed, this team could make some noise in the A-Sun. Led by Rob Perry, they’re the only team in the conference that’s beaten both the 1 (Liberty) and 3 (Lipscomb) seeds. Their first-round matchup with Bellarmine should be a good one.
My Prediction
1 Liberty over 2 Bellarmine
CAA
March 6-March 9
Harrisonburg
Last 3 Winners
Charleston (2018), Northeastern (2019), Hofstra (2020)
3 Stars
Matt Lewis (James Madison)- 6’5/200 SR, 19.7 PPG (1st in CAA)/3.7 APG (5th in CAA)
Camren Wynter (Drexel)- 6’2/175 JR, 17.6 PPG (5th in CAA)/5.6 APG (2nd in CAA)
Tyson Walker (Northeastern)- 6’0/162 SO, 18.5 PPG (3rd in CAA)/4.9 APG (3rd in CAA)/2.2 SPG (1st in CAA)
By the Numbers
2013– Even through past CAA success, Hofstra coach Joe Mihalich hasn’t made the tournament with the Pride since arriving there back in 2013. They did win the CAA Tournament last year, but of course that didn’t lead to a March Madness berth. However, with a lot of that squad returning, expect Hofstra to be one of the favorites to head to the Big Dance out of this conference.
Sleeper Team
#6 Drexel- Despite going 4-5 in conference play this season, Drexel is actually the CAA’s highest ranked team according to KenPom. And with an offensive star in Camren Wynter, the Zack Spiker-led Dragons could make some noise.
My Prediction
1 James Madison over 6 Drexel
Ohio Valley
March 3-March 6
Evansville
Last 3 Winners
Murray State (2018), Murray State (2019), Belmont (2020)
3 Stars
Terry Taylor (Austin Peay)- 6’5/230 SR, 21.7 PPG (5th in NCAA)/11 RPG (9th in NCAA)
Nick Muszynski (Belmont)- 6’11/235 JR, 15.2 PPG/1.6 BPG (3rd in Ohio Valley)
KJ Williams (Murray St)- 6’10/245 JR, 15.3 PPG (5th in Ohio Valley)/8.4 RPG (3rd in Ohio Valley)
By the Numbers
10– While I didn’t mention him in 3 Stars, one of the most underrated players in the country is Morehead State freshman Johni Broome. Broome is in the top 10 nationally for freshmen in offensive and defensive rebound rate. Additionally, he’s currently 4th in the country in block rate, as he swats away 8.6% of his opponent’s 2-point attempts. With a couple big games, Broome very well could lead the Eagles to an OVC title.
Sleeper Team
#4 Jacksonville State- Sitting at 17-8 overall, the Gamecocks have a talented team and are top 100 nationally in both offensive and defensive field goal rate. One worry with them however is that all six of their Ohio Valley losses this year came to the three teams ahead of them.
My Prediction
1 Belmont over 2 Morehead St
Southern
March 4-March 8
Asheville
Last 3 Winners
UNC Greensboro (2018), Wofford (2019), East Tennessee State (2020)
3 Stars
Isaiah Miller (UNC Greensboro)- 6’0/190 SR, 18.9 PPG (2nd in Southern)/2.6 SPG (7th in NCAA)
Malachi Smith (Chattanooga)- 6’4/205 SO, 16.8 PPG/8.8 RPG (2nd in Southern)
Hayden Brown (The Citadel)- 6’5/225 JR, 19 PPG (1st in Southern)/10.5 RPG (1st in Southern)
By the Numbers
67.1-71.4– The SoCon field is very interesting this year, as the top five teams average 67.1 possesions per game, while the bottom five teams average 71.4. If these bottom teams are able to control the pace and play fast, we could see an upset-heavy bracket.
Sleeper Team
#6 VMI- The Keydets are above .500 in SoCon play for the first time since 2014, and they have a team that can be scary, ranking among the top nationally in a few offensive stats. Their team shoots a lot from deep, and if they can get hot, VMI very well could go dancing, especially since they’ve already beaten all four of the SoCon’s top seeds.
My Prediction
6 VMI over 8 Citadel
