Every year there is a fantasy QB taken at the end of drafts who finishes with extreme value, and these picks have won me many leagues. Carson Wentz in 2017, Patrick Mahomes in 2018, and Lamar Jackson in 2019 are all prime examples. It’s safe to say that someone will break out in 2020, it’s just a matter of who it’ll be. Here are three QBs who I think will exceed their ADP, so let’s find out who these amazing picks are.
Carson Wentz – PHI
I’d be surprised if Wentz finished below where he is going to be drafted. He is currently projected as the 12th QB off the board, below regressing veterans like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. Wentz was put in a terrible situation last year, with his main WRs being Nelson Agholor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and Greg Ward.
Despite the massive disadvantage that he was put in, he finished as the QB10. Wentz just got massive upgrades at the WR position, so regression makes no sense. I see Wentz as a top eight QB and I’m comfortable with him as a starter.
Ryan Tannehill – TEN
Tannehill is hated a lot, and I still don’t understand why. He only played 12 games in 2019, but when averaged out to a 16 game season, he finished as the QB8 in fantasy football. Many people ignore this and look straight to the playoffs, where against elite secondaries and being put in a massive hole vs KC, he barely threw the ball and put the spotlight on Derrick Henry. The small sample size that many casual fans focus on allows for a likely starting-level QB to fall much further than he should.
The first two candidates are ones that I could see as a top five QB, but its more likely that they finish a few spots ahead of their ADP. However, this last one is the true boom-or-bust.
Drew Lock – DEN
Drew Lock managed to play well despite having virtually zero freedom in Denver’s offense in 2019. Lock has so much more to work with this year, including WRs Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, RB Melvin Gordon, an upgraded offensive line, and a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur.
This season, Lock went from a bottom 10 supporting cast to a top 10 supporting cast. With an offseason as QB1 under his belt, I see major progression from Lock and he has the talent to be a top 10 guy if he puts everything together.
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