Aaron Jones is one of the strongest candidates for regression this season. When predicting busts at the RB position, I usually look at the player’s touchdown dependency, consistency, injury history, and competition in the relative backfield.
Obviously, a lot of running backs struggle with a few of the above categories and aren’t busts. However, when a player has three or four strikes against them, the odds of that player having an underwhelming season go up dramatically.
Aaron Jones has a strike against him in every category listed above. Jones is obviously extremely talented, but there’s a serious cause for concern. He was ranked the #1 RB position in terms of volatility. In other words, Jones was incredibly inconsistent. Any Jones owner will remember when he followed up a 41 point performance with only 3.9 points the next week.
Moreover, Aaron Jones is the definition of TD dependent. He led the position in touchdowns with an incredible 19. Even before the addition of A.J. Dillon, touchdown regression was expected. With two other competent backs in Green Bay (one specializing in goal-line work), there is little to no doubt Jones will see a drastic decrease in total touchdowns.
Also, Jones has struggled with injuries in the past, and his durability is not amazing. Although he’s managed to stay on the field, for the most part, he’s consistently banged up and playing through injuries.
In my opinion, Jones will be a very solid fantasy RB this season, but at his current ADP, he’s a huge bust. It’s important to remember that if you spend your first-round pick on Jones you are paying for what he’s already done, not what he could do this season.
Regression is coming!
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