- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Jimmy Butler
- Stephen Curry
- Anthony Davis
- Luka Doncic
- Kevin Durant
- Joel Embiid
- James Harden
- LeBron James
- Nikola Jokic
- Kawhi Leonard
- Damian Lillard
- Donovan Mitchell
- Chris Paul
- Pascal Siakam
- Ben Simmons
- Jayson Tatum
- Trae Young
Here is a list of NBA stars who have some sort of chance to win MVP. The MVP in the NBA is probably the most important MVP award in professional sports. Often, the MVP is not a random player who breaks out, and usually a star beforehand. The last player to really jump to win the MVP was Derrick Rose, who was seen as an outside candidate for the award.
The first criteria for MVP are stats. Though basic stats don’t tell the entire story for players, it is a major factor. A player needs to average at least 20 PPG (likely more) and be able to do more than just score. Defense is considered, but offense is more important in MVP voting. Thus, Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, and Ben Simmons are likely out of contention for this award due to a lack of scoring, despite all being good defenders.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Stephen Curry
- Anthony Davis
- Luka Doncic
- Kevin Durant
- Joel Embiid
- James Harden
- LeBron James
- Nikola Jokic
- Kawhi Leonard
- Damian Lillard
- Donovan Mitchell
- Pascal Siakam
- Jayson Tatum
- Trae Young
Another factor in MVP voting is not so much of the players’ responsibility but is winning a lot of games. Usually, the MVP’s team has a top 2 seed in their conference and/or 55+ wins. The only player since 1990 to do neither was Russell Westbrook, only because he had an incredible feat of averaging a triple-double.
It seems unlikely that someone could do something as incredible as Westbrook did in 2016-17, and even if they could, if there is another candidate with strong stats and 55+ wins, they would likely win.
Winning is a major factor, and had Westbrook not been in a weak pool, he could’ve lost. It seems unlikely that Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Trae Young, and unfortunately, Stephen Curry and James Harden cannot meet the criteria of being part of a top 2 seed in their conferences and will not win the MVP award.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Anthony Davis
- Luka Doncic
- Kevin Durant
- Joel Embiid
- LeBron James
- Nikola Jokic
- Kawhi Leonard
- Pascal Siakam
- Jayson Tatum
The two biggest factors have cut our list from 18 to 10, and we are going to now cut more players before we get to our finalists. Health is another major factor and often limits some candidates. Kevin Durant is coming back from an Achilles tear and likely will have more rest than usual. Kawhi Leonard often sits out to prepare himself for the playoffs, so I don’t think he will play enough games to qualify.
Three players who just aren’t likely to win are Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, and Pascal Siakam. Siakam just isn’t seen as a top player in the NBA, and the Raptors rely on team success, which could discredit Siakam’s impact.
Embiid could realistically bring his 76ers to a top 2 seed, but I think some of that credit will be given to Ben Simmons. Doncic is actually the favorite to win, but I don’t think this will happen because it seems unlikely that his team could get a top 2 seed in the West.
Luka probably will finish in the top 5 of MVP voting, but his lack of winning will, unfortunately, prevent him from winning MVP.
Finalists:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Anthony Davis
- LeBron James
- Nikola Jokic
- Jayson Tatum
In 5th place, is Jayson Tatum. Though Tatum is not as good as Doncic, he will almost certainly win more games. If the Celtics win 55+ wins and get a top 2 seed, Tatum will certainly be in the running for MVP.
4th place belongs to LeBron James. This might be very surprising as the Lakers are favorites to win the championship, but I think that LeBron will want to rest a little more and take a back seat to Anthony Davis. For LeBron James, it is not a sprint, it is a marathon. I can see him having an “off season” and preparing for another title run.
Nikola Jokic comes in 3rd place and has a strong case for MVP. It is not unrealistic to see the Nuggets get a top 2 seed and surprise people. Jokic might not be as statistically impressive as Tatum or LeBron, but his impact is seen as he leads an offense that is very efficient.
Ultimately, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are likely to progress and help Jokic, but if the Nuggets get the top seed in the West, I can see Jokic winning the MVP.
Runner-up for MVP is the two-time and reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis will likely put up great stats, play great defense, and lead the Bucks to a top 2 seed, but at the end of the day, it is all about the storyline. Giannis’s main storyline and focus for this season will be his future in Milwaukee, and if he can achieve success in the playoffs.
Giannis likely will take a step back and focus on the bigger picture. Additionally, no player has won MVP three straight times since Larry Bird in 1984, 85, and 86. It seems Giannis is not aiming to do the same and the voters will want to vote for a new face.
The 2020-21 MVP will be Anthony Davis. He is on track to have a career year and play on a top team. With LeBron focusing on the playoffs and not putting all his effort into an MVP, Davis seems primed to win.
The Lakers will roll through the regular season with Davis playing awesome defense, stellar offense, and having a major impact on the Lakers’ success. Anthony Davis will win the MVP and possibly a championship in 2021.
Photo Credit: Glenn James / NBAE via Getty Images
