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Spring Training has started meaning it’s time for fantasy baseball drafts. If you are one of the many playing this year, here is who will break out this year, and who will break down.

SLEEPER: Julio Urias, SP/RP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ranked at 129 by ESPN, Urias is criminally low. Urias is a former top pitching prospect, and he pitched the last two innings of the Dodgers World Series clincher. Another great thing about him is that as a starter and a reliever, he can get saves and wins. Dodgers’ Manager Dave Roberts has even said that Urias is in the best form of his career going into Spring Training.

BUST: Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies

Charlie Blackmon had 42 RBI in 2020 and hit .300. Both are good. He plays in the best hitting ballpark in Major League Baseball, which is also good. So why is Blackmon a bust? For one, Arenado is gone. That will mean less RBIs and less runs. Trevor Story has also been the subject of trade rumors. Next, he’s playing a full season. Blackmon hit .400 through August 24th, but that is only one month of action. Over the next month, his batting average dropped 100 points. Over a full season? Don’t count of Blackmon to do as well as he did in 2020.

SLEEPER: Josh Bell, 1B, Washington Nationals.

Bell is in the opposite scenario as Blackmon. He was an MVP candidate in 2019 with the Pirates heading into the All Star Break, but got hurt. In 2020 he didn’t do too well, hitting under .250 and only eight homers. However, Bell is heading to the Nationals where he should be able to get more RBIs and runs with guys like Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber in the lineup. Bell is a high ceiling player who can be snagged late, with a ranking in the triple digits from ESPN.

BUST: Lance Lynn, SP, Chicago White Sox / Mike Minor, SP, Kansas City Royals

Why did I put these guys together? Well, they’re busts for the same reason. The reason? Around a week ago, the Philadelphia Phillies signed veteran catcher Jeff Mathis. Mathis is not well known, because he doesn’t provide anything batting wise. Is it a coincidence though that Lynn and Minor both placed in Cy Young voting with Mathis at the catcher? Nope. Lynn has moved to Chicago, where I expect him to have a down year, and Minor was traded to the Athletics mid-2020. Guess what? His ERA was above five. Steer clear of Minor at all costs, and although Lynn is better, I would avoid drafting him too early.

Those are my sleepers and busts for the 2020 MLB season. Good luck!

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